Recently affected by the black swan incident, the cotton yarn market turnover has once again dropped, and the textile people shouted, "This year's life is really difficult. As long as you can survive this year, you will be the winner." It is true that since the public health event broke out in the country, the market has been suspended. Due to the delay in the start of operations, some orders have been transferred out. With the slow start of the textile market in mid-February, the market has gradually improved. However, public health incidents broke out around March and caused financial markets to plunge. Raw materials fell sharply and orders fell sharply. Market transactions deteriorated again. Some companies reported that the impact of public health incidents was greater than the Sino-US trade war. March and April The traditional peak season will become the hardest time.
5000 tons of large customers lost, orders cancelled due to overseas epidemic worsened
With the spread of the new crown pneumonia epidemic abroad, the global panic has increased, and there have been large outbreaks of infection in Europe, North America and Southeast Asia. At present, many countries have declared a state of emergency and introduced a series of measures to close the country and block the city. Similar to the situation in China before, it will inevitably enter into the state of home office and half-downtime of some enterprises to varying degrees.
Of course, this situation will also lead to a sharp reduction in the number of domestic foreign trade orders, and manufacturers' production enthusiasm is suppressed. Although the export is resumed in the early stage, it will also face the following two problems. First, after the export of the terminal source to the destination port, the efficiency of customs clearance and transshipment will be greatly reduced, the transportation time will be prolonged, and a lot of additional terminal storage costs will also be generated. Secondly, affected by the epidemic situation, downstream receivers may exhibit behaviors such as not picking up or discarding their products. So overall, it caused immeasurable losses to exports.
And the domestic market demand is sluggish, and it is difficult to make a big improvement in the short term. According to data, the inventory of weaving manufacturers is currently around 38 days. Although the epidemic situation in China has been better controlled, the downstream market has not changed much so far, and the destocking cycle in the later period is relatively long. Moreover, according to the China Garment Association's survey on the resumption of production and production of apparel companies, as of March 6, 29.4% of the surveyed companies reported that orders had decreased due to sluggish market demand and cancellation of orders, and some companies reported a sharp decline in domestic orders.
Not just chemical fiber weaving companies, cotton spinning companies are also not optimistic. According to surveys, Sino-US trade relations have improved before the holiday, and foreign trade orders have partially returned. Cotton spinning orders have been ordered for about 15 days, and some companies have been ordering for about 1 month.
However, domestic public health incidents around the Spring Festival led to a delay of 7-30 days for textile enterprises to start after the festival, and some orders were transferred out. As the textile enterprises fully resumed production at the end of February, orders began to improve. However, public health emergencies abroad since March have dampened the demand for textiles again, and some companies have reported that foreign trade orders have declined sharply recently, and domestic trade orders have also experienced chargebacks. Judging from the situation of some of the large textile companies surveyed, some companies reported a loss of 5,000 tons of large customers, mainly due to foreign fabric customers' refunds.
Tsarist Russia's "price war" intensifies, costs collapse and corporate losses increase
Last week the crude oil market can be described as thrilling, with a weekly decline of more than 20%. First, the non-OPEC production reduction agreement led by OPEC and Russia aborted, and the new crown pneumonia epidemic spread abroad. Crude oil hit its largest one-day drop since 2014. After that, Saudi Arabia sharply lowered its official sales price for April and increased its crude oil production in April. Over the past 7 weeks, US crude oil inventories have increased, and crude oil has resumed its downward trend. Although various countries have also introduced corresponding policy stimuli, the market does not buy it, and continues to maintain a low-level oscillation pattern.
On March 18, Saudi Arabia announced that it would increase crude oil exports to a record high of 10 million barrels per day. Goldman Sachs lowered its oil price forecast for the second quarter from $ 30 / barrel to $ 20 / barrel. International oil prices fell across the board. NYMEX crude oil futures closed down 6.17% to 27.21 US dollars / barrel, while cloth oil closed down 3.76% to 30.5 US dollars / barrel. Compared with prices in early March, WTI and Brent oil prices are almost cut.
Affected by the sharp decline in crude oil prices, PX also experienced a cliff-like decline. As of the close of the 17th, the Asian PX market closed at US $ 572.67 / ton CFR China and US $ 554.67 / ton FOB Korea, which fell by US $ 125 / ton compared to the beginning of March. 17.91% and 22.54%. The downward focus of the PX market means that the cost focus of PTA is lower. Judging from the lowest price of the main contract since the beginning of March, the PTA market's center of gravity has moved down 674, down 15.67%.
According to the current PX price and the processing fee of 500 yuan / ton, the PTA cost should be around 3570 yuan / ton, which is close to the disk price.
Combining the low points of crude oil and PTA prices in 2016, PTA prices have reached a new low since listing, while the crude oil above is slightly higher than the 2016 low, and PTA is already in an oversold state. In addition, the value added of industries above designated size in the country from January to February 2020 was further confirmed.
From January to February, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size actually decreased by 13.5% year-on-year. In February, the added value of industries above designated size decreased by 26.63% from the previous month. Among them, the textile industry decreased by 27.2%, and the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry decreased by 12.3%. From the data point of view, the decline of the textile industry is close to the data of chemical raw materials, which is at a low point in recent years.
With insufficient cost support, polyester yarn has also fallen into a continuous decline. At this time, many weaving manufacturers expressed a loss! "Now it is equivalent to producing low-priced grey fabrics with raw materials bought at high prices. Customers have been pushing down prices. Our twill peach skin has fallen by 1 wool!" Said a manufacturer specializing in peach skin.
Coincidentally, another manufacturer of memory cloths also has a deep understanding: "Now many manufacturers around us have reduced the start-up rate. It is not because of the workers. The workers are basically here now. Except for Hubei, the main reason is the current raw materials. The situation is not clear. Our grey cloth has depreciated, and we have not been able to buy low-cost raw materials recently. The salesman who cooperated with us actually did not sell. I think the polyester yarn fell too hard. I want to see Will it increase a little bit and sell it later. "" The price of polyester yarn has fallen sharply. If the polyester yarn falls by 500, the grey fabric will fall by at least 1 wool, and the polyester yarn will increase by 500, but the grey fabric will not rise. So now the price of grey cloth is really low, T400 Last year it was more than 5 yuan, and this year there are only 4 yuan. There is no money to make. "Said a cloth owner.
Can't sustain it, and the filament weaving enterprises have also started a "price war"!
In the case of high inventory and low demand, textile bosses will generally face inventory pressure and financial pressure. Grey fabrics in warehouses have already occupied a lot of funds, and manual wages, hydropower, and rent must be paid in cash. This situation Next, if the grey cloth is not monetized, unless there is a big business and there is no pressure on capital, the company will not be able to support it, and sufficient cash can ensure the healthy operation of the company.
With the suppression of these two mountains, the phenomenon of dumping goods on the market has continued one after another, and even the best-selling simulation silk in recent years is difficult to "survive." A person in charge of a professional manufacturer of artificial silk said that by the end of 2019, the price of 100D chiffon was 2 yuan / meter, and now it has dropped to 1.8 yuan / meter. In March of previous years, the price of grey fabrics increased and queued to get goods, but in March, the price of grey fabrics dropped and a large number of goods were sold.
When the market is in a downturn, many manufacturers will consider reducing production and vacations. In July and August of last year, many weaving and dyeing factories took high-temperature vacations, but this year is likely to be ahead of schedule. In the case of unsustainable orders, many manufacturers will consider reducing production or even holiday. In the short-term, it is recommended that varieties with larger stocks go along with the market, and the transaction can be appropriately profitable; prices of lower-stock varieties can be temporarily stabilized, and the principle of production according to order, use-and-use, and strict inventory control is adhered to.
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Hangzhou Yujie Chemical Co., Ltd. specializes in the production and operation of non-woven masterbatches, polypropylene staple masterbatches, polypropylene masterbatches, polypropylene filament masterbatches, polypropylene black masterbatches, various plastic colored masterbatches, poly Acrylic white masterbatch, cooling masterbatch, anti-aging masterbatch, antibacterial masterbatch, antistatic masterbatch, hydrophilic masterbatch, soft masterbatch, calcium carbonate filled masterbatch, color oil, color yarn, SMS masterbatch, pre Disperse pigments and other products.
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